Twilight Forums

Oh no!

Why did you have to include a casino, O Ross?

I have just found an MMG variant in the form of Devil Dice and I will probably lose all my chips there, just like in "The Other Place". Although there, it was in the form of a comestible.

Oh dear... I... should never... be allowed anywhere near a casino in real life. I am a severe gambling addict. At 13. Great...

There is a reason why those "Dice" are the "Devil's" ones...

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Quick grammar note:

"Die" in the singular of those things which you roll in oh so many board games.

"Dice" is the plural and so...


should actually be:

Fix'd

I suppose there are some things in the English language that I'll never accept them the way they are...

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Thank heavens the Devil Dice infinite chips bug was fixed a while back. We wouldn't have wanted you to get even more addicted than you currently are, which is probably what would happen if you'd actually made a net profit.

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Have a nice day.

Gamble adiction does not come from winning, but from the possibility of winning...

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Necro! I've just lost all my chips on devil dice.

And isn't it funny how similar the golden wooden nickel casino is to the knob goblin treasury?

You've been warned Kenny

Really, I do wonder, how much was "all of it" ?

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Oooh. Around 20k? Not that much compared to some OTHER PEOPLE I know.

*Stare*

>.>
<.<

Lol! I'll give you 40k if you stop gambling!

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Not likely I'll be able to stop gambling. Especially if you give me 40k.

And I happen to like making short posts.

yeah i lost about 25k playing rock paper scissors, the computer cheeeeetz!

I made about 8 million playing rock paper scissors.

I hate you.

Having to adventure in the casino all the time just to scrounge enough chips to pay for each level isn't particularly fun.

I thought it was talking about the video game before I went to check it out.

Given the current form of the casino, it really does not pay to gamble.

As for the analysis of Devil Dice, here it goes (long post, only for statistic and probability freaks OR trully gambling freaks) The quoted paragraphs are epilogues of each case, and in the end, there is an epilogue:

Devil Dice uses three dice of six sides each, and we consider that there are no loaded dice thus, each dice has equal chances of rolling any number.

There are 216 distinct non shared cases. (the "non shared" part means that among the cases, "6 6 3" and "3 6 6" are considered to be different cases.).

Each one of those cases has an equal chance of being rolled, which is equal to 0.4629% ,it is NOT a rational number, since the "629" part is repeated infinetely, but for calculation purposes, it will be sufficient.

Now, we will take the possible game settings to analyze:

Betting on a single number: There are 91 out of 216 (42.123%) chances to get AT LEAST a single instance of the number you chose (it is irrelevant which one you chose, they all have the same chance). From these 91 cases, the 75, consist of taking back your money, only 15 permit you to take double your money and a single one, permits you to get tripple that. In short, By playing Devil Dice and betting on a single number, you only have 6.9435% chance of earning something positive (double your money), and a mere 0.4629% to get triple your money. You also have a relatively good chance (34.7175%) to take back your money with earning or loss. This leaves a big fat 57.8625% chance of losing your bet.



Devil Dice: This farely simple. You have 0.4629% of winning 175 times your money.



Triples: Each number has a single tripple, so, there are 6 out of 216 tripples. In short, you have 2.7774% of getting 30 times your chips.



High/Low: Ok, first of all, 'high' seems to be the most disadvanageous bet, since most do think that 10, in a possible max of 18, and excluding triples, is fairly low. The truth is quite far. Myabe the max is 18, but the average is 10.5 not 9. This is because the minimum sum is 3. Exactly the same gows for 'low'. Now, there are exactly 108 cases that have a sum greater than 10 (or lesser than 11), which is half the possible cases. The tripples with sum greater than 10 are only 4 (4's, 5'sand 6's) which means out of 108 winning cases, 3 are removed, leaving 105 cases, or 48.6045% of winning double your money.



Odd/Even: This is the exact same as above. Half the cases are odd (or even) and half the triples are even (or odd). The chances are the same, the winnings are the same thus...





Oh, and Ross, if for some reason, you would prefer the above data not to be part of the forums, please, warn me first, so as to copy the text somewhere, since curently I am repairing my own computer .

EDIT: and yay for 333 posts! Double it! Muhahah! (for those that have heard that laugh via msn, cower in fear!)

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That's put me off doing maths. Ever.

Damn you very much.

Yes.
However, as the casino is very fair and has a very low minimum bet limit, and no maximum - it is possible to use the Martingale system (double your bet after every loss - reset after every win) and be relatively successful.


The chances of you winning a single roll of one of the best games (let's pick "High") is:
Half of the possible rolls come out high, but 3 of those will be triples (so will lose).
108/216 - 3/216 = 105/216 = 35/72

Therefore the chance of you losing any individual roll is 37/72


Using the Martingale system it is possible to offset any individual losses by the next bet (and so on), by doubling up, and so the odds of losing any individual bet aren't as important as the odds of losing all the bets you can afford.

You start off playing for 10 chips
a) if you win you are down your initial stake of 10, but you have won 20 - you are up 10 chips.
b) if you lose you are down 10 chips so now play for 20

You play for 20
a) if you win you are down your initial 10, and the further stake of 20, but have won 40 - you are up 10 chips
b) if you lose you are down a total of 10+20=30 chips, so now play for 40

You play for 40
a) if you win you are down your 30, and your stake of 40, but have won 80 - you are up 10 chips
b) if you lose you are down a total of 70 chips - play for 80

You play for 80
a) if you win you are down your 70, and your stake of 80, but have won 160 - you are up 10 chips
b) if you lose you are down a total of 150 chips - play for 160

... and so on and so forth.


If you only have 150 chips, and you lose 4 times in a row, you are broke. And it is entirely possible to lose 4 times in a row.
However the chances of losing 4 times in a row is a lot less than losing once. The chance of you losing 4 times in a row (bearing in mind they are independent events) is:

(37/72)^4 = 6.97391919%


In other words, if you have 150 chips and you play the Martingale system you have over a 93% chance of ending up with 160 chips, and just under 7% of being broke.

That pesky 7% is one of the ways casinos make their money (there is always a chance you can lose, and lose big).




Most of us, however, have over 150 chips after a short amount of play, right?
So let us examine the case if you have 2550 chips.
With 2,550 chips you can afford to play, doubling up after each loss, up to 8 times.
This means that you have a 99.5% chance of ending up with 2560 chips. Again, you have a non-zero chance of losing - you can, of course, lose every time out of 8 successive rolls.


If you have 20,470 chips you can afford to lose up to 11 times in a row, giving you a 99.93% chance of winning your 10 chips.

As always, the chances of losing it all still exist, but the more you have the better you can improve your overall chance of winning that 10 chips.


So, you can't eliminate the chances of losing - you can, after all, flip a coin and get a tail 20 times in a row - but you can reduce them down to a level you might feel comfortable with.

For example, would be happy to play a game that cost 20,470 chips but only paid out 20,480 chips (so a profit of 10 chips if you win), even if the chance of you winning was 99.93%

What about if it cost 163,830, would pay out 163,840 if you won (so still only 10 chips profit), and you had a 99.991% chance of winning?

Be aware that you can lose everything, even using Martingale.


The biggest thing Casinos have in their favour is:
1) lots of people making lots of bets, overall the house wins - even a 0.09% chance of the house winning can come up often enough.
2) a house limit, so that people can't double up indefinitely (even if they had the funds to do so)



I suspect that increasing the minimum bet, and/or introducing a house cap might be sensible.


NOTE: I have raised this with Ryme and he has said that it is working as intended (so it isn't a bug), but I think this is something that could be looked at.

Yeah, I suppose I could throw a limit in there. Or just have the house cheat. Now if only I could convince my landlord to let me pay my rent in chips ...

Hmm, when I won some meat on kol mmg, I wished that there was a kind of reverse hippy stone to mmg, with that I wouldn't have lost all the winnings.
It would work so that after breaking it you're in no way allowed to go to the casino again for two weeks. That would give us addicts enough time to reevaluate how much we need something we could buy with the winnings compared to just gambling again. But while you're sure that you want to stop while winning, you could break it and have no problem.
It could involve something along the lines of pick a fight with the bouncer or something to fit in.

Just throwing ideas to keep us addicts *sigh* from losing all our money (or chips or meat).

Nah, that's just cheap. Sorry to sound blunt, but it's still your fault. I've messed around in the MMG and Devil Dice without falling into the gambler's trap. And plus, what if someone is feeling lucky? And is lucky?

You and I already have a lot in common, my friend

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